{"id":431,"date":"2020-02-26T11:02:26","date_gmt":"2020-02-26T16:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/?p=431"},"modified":"2020-02-26T14:07:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-26T19:07:20","slug":"%eb%94%b0%eb%9c%bb%ed%95%b4%ec%a7%80%eb%a9%b4-covid-19%ea%b0%80-%ec%a2%85%ec%8b%9d%eb%90%a0%ea%b9%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/?p=431","title":{"rendered":"\ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 COVID-19\uac00 \uc885\uc2dd\ub420\uae4c?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uc800\uc790\uc815\ubcf4: https:\/\/www.hsph.harvard.edu\/marc-lipsitch\/<\/a>
\nProfessor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
\n\ud558\ubc84\ub4dc \ubcf4\uac74\ub300\ud559\uc6d0 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\ud559 \uad50\uc218<\/p>\n

\ucd08\ubc8c\ubc88\uc5ed \uc6d0\ubb38: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/documen..\/edit<\/a> (\uad6c\uae00\ub2e5\uc2a4\uc774\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 2020-02-26 10:10:00 AM EDT \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uce74\ud53c\ud574\uc11c \ubc88\uc5ed\ud568)<\/p>\n

\uc544\ub798\ub294 \ucd08\ubc8c\ubc88\uc5ed\uc774\uace0 \uc6d0\ubb38\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud558\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub780\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 COVID-19\uac00 \uc885\uc2dd\ub420\uae4c?<\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

(\ud55c \uc904 \uc694\uc57d) \uc544\ub2c8\uc624.<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc744 \ube44\ub86f\ud574\uc11c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774 \uc2e0\uc885 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4 SARS-CoV-2\uc640 \uc774 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uc57c\uae30\ud558\ub294 \ubcd1\uc99d COVID-19\uac00 \ubd81\ubc18\uad6c \ub0a0\uc528\uac00 \uba87 \ub2ec \ud6c4 \ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 \uc885\uc2dd\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 \uc77c\ubd80\ub294 \ud55c \ubc1c \ub354 \ub098\uc544\uac00 2003\ub144 \uc0ac\uc2a4(SARS)\ub54c\uc758 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc774 \uadf8 \uadfc\uac70\ub77c\uace0 \uc598\uae30\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacfc\uc5f0 \ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 COVID-19\uac00 \uc885\uc2dd\ub418\uaca0\ub290\ub0d0\ub294 \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9e7\uc740 \ub2f5\uc740 SARS-CoV-2\uac00 \uc880\ub354 \ub530\ub73b\ud558\uace0 \ub2e4\uc2b5\ud55c \ub0a0\uc528, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc544\ub9c8\ub3c4 \ubd81\ubc18\ubd80 \uc628\ub300\uae30\ud6c4\ub300\uc758 \ud559\uad50\ub4e4\uc758 \ud734\uad50(\ubc29\ud559)\ub85c \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \uac83 \uc790\uccb4\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ucd94\uc774\uc5d0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904\uac70\ub77c \ubcf4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub0b4 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0, \uc77c\ub2e8 \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \ub3cc\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubbf8\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc744 \ud0c0\ud30c\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubbf8\uc2e0 1: <\/i> 2003\ub144, SARS\ub294 \ub0a0\uc528\uac00 \ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\uc790 \uc885\uc2dd\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/em> SARS\ub294 \uc790\uc5f0\uc801\uc778 \uc6d0\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc885\uc2dd\ub41c\uac8c \uc544\ub2c8\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d \ubcf8\ud1a0 \ub3c4\uc2dc\ub4e4, \ud64d\ucf69, \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8, \ud0dc\uad6d, \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\ub97c \ube44\ub86f\ud55c \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ubcf4\uac74\uc870\uce58\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574\uc11c \uc885\uc2dd\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc9c4\uc2e4\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc870\uce58\ub4e4\uc5d0\ub294 \uaca9\ub9ac, \uc811\ucd09\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc29\uc5ed, “\uc0ac\ud68c\uc801 \uac70\ub9ac\ub450\uae30 (\uc5ed\uc8fc: \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc9d1\ud68c \ub4f1\uc744 \uc790\uc81c\ud558\ub294 \uac83)” \uc870\uce58, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub178\ub825\ub4e4\uc744 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4. SARS\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub4e4\uc774 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub294\ub370 \uc65c\ub0d0\ud558\uba74 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac10\uc5fc\ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uac1c\uc778\ub4e4\uc774 \ud2b9\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc544\ud320\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4 — \uc989 \uc544\ud508 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc81c\uc77c \ub9ce\uc774 \uac10\uc5fc\uc744 \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a4\ub294 \uc774\ub4e4\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc774 \uc544\ud508 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc744 \uaca9\ub9ac\ud558\uc790 \uc804\ud30c\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud1a0\ub860\ud1a0\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd08\uae30 \uc804\uc5fc\uc720\ud589\uc774 \ud1b5\uc81c\ub418\uace0 \uc8fc\uc758\uc870\uce58\ub4e4\uc774 \ud574\uc81c\ub41c \ud6c4\uc5d0 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc720\ud589\ubcd1\uc774 \ubc88\uc84c\ub358 \uc0ac\ub840<\/a>\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 (\ub0a0\uc528\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c) \ubc29\uc5ed\uc870\uce58\uac00 \ucd08\uae30 \uc720\ud589\uc744 \ub9c9\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubbf8\uc2e0 2: <\/i> \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 “\uac10\uae30”\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a4\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4 \uc885\uc740 \uacc4\uc808\uc131, \uc989 \uc5ec\ub984\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcc4\ub85c \uc804\uc5fc\uc774 \uc548 \ub418\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, SARS-CoV-2 \ub610\ud55c \uadf8\ub7f4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/em> \uc2e0\uc885 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2d0\uc9c0 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc885\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574\uc11c \ucd94\uc815\ud574\ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc5b8\uc81c\ub098 \ucd94\uc815\uc758 \uc601\uc5ed\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \ub54c\ub294 \uadf8\uac8c \ucd5c\uc120\uc77c \uc21c \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774 \ubbf8\uc2e0\uc758 \uccab\ubc88\uc9f8 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294, \uc774 \uc77c\ubc18 \uac10\uae30\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a4\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4 – OC43, HKU1, 229E \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 NL63\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac SARS-CoV-2 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc5d0 \uc18d\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294\ub370 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420\uc9c0 \uc798 \ubaa8\ub978\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. OC43\uc774\ub791 HKU1\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 \uacc4\uc808\uc131 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5fc\uae30\uc11c\uc5f4\uc0c1 SARS-CoV2\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uce5c\ucc99\uc774\uae34 \ud55c\ub370, \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc544\uc8fc \uc624\ub79c\ub3d9\uc548 \uc778\uad6c\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ud589\ud558\uace0 \uc9c4\ud654\ud588\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \uc774\uc885 \uac10\uc5fc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \uc720\uc785\ub41c \uc2e0\uc885 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc758 \ud589\ud0dc\ub97c \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc798 \uc608\uce21\ud560\uc9c0 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc790, \uc65c \uadf8\ub7f0\uc9c0 \uc880\ub354 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uc790. \uc65c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc744 \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc628\ub300\uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \ud638\ud761\uae30 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc774 \uaca8\uc6b8\uc5d0 \uc720\ud589\ud558\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774 \ud604\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub124 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \ub098\uc5f4\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc774 \uc694\uc18c\ub4e4\uc911 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc694\ud55c\uc9c0 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\uace0, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 \uc678\uc0bd\uc744 \ud574\uc57c\ud560 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub2e4 (\uc989, \uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\ub2e4).<\/p>\n

\uc694\uc18c 1: \ud658\uacbd<\/strong>. \uaca8\uc6b8\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e4\uc678\uacf5\uae30\ub294 \ucc28\uac11\uace0, \uc2e4\ub0b4\uc678 \uacf5\uae30\ub294 \ubaa8\ub450 \uac74\uc870\ud558\ub2e4. \ub3c5\uac10 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d4 \uc808\ub300\uc2b5\ub3c4\uac00 \ub3c5\uac10 \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc5d0 \uac15\ub825\ud558\uac8c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc720\ub824\ud55c \uc2e4\ud5d8<\/a>\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574\uc11c \ubc1d\ud600\uc9c4 \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac74\uc870\ud55c \uacf5\uae30\uac00 \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc5ed\ud559\uc870\uc0ac\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774 \uc2e4\ud5d8 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d<\/a>\uacfc \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8<\/a> \ub4f1 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc5ed\ud559\uc5f0\uad6c\uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uad00\ucc30\uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \ubc1d\ud600\uc9c4 \ubc14\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8\uc5d0\uc120 \ub3c5\uac10\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ub3c5\uac10\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ubcd1\uc99d\uc744 \uad00\ucc30\ud588\uc744 \ub54c\ub3c4 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\uc654\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \ub2e4\ub978 \ud6a8\ud761\uae30 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uae30\uc791\uc774 \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ucd94\uc815\uc740 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub0b4\uac00 \uc544\ub294 \ud55c \ub3c5\uac10\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub098 \ub2e4\ub978 \ud638\ud761\uae30 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b5\ub3c4\uac00 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c \uc5f0\uad6c\ub41c \ubc14\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc810\uc740, \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub2e4\uc2b5\ud55c \uc870\uac74<\/a>\uc774 \ub3c5\uac10 \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ub192\uc77c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc5f4\ub300\uc9c0\uc5ed\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574\uc11c \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud5c8\ub098 \uc628\ub300\uc9c0\uc5ed \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c, \uac74\uc870\ud55c \uacf5\uae30 = \ub3c5\uac10 \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \uc870\uac74\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60\uc9c0 \ubaa8\ub978\ub2e4. \ub0b4\uac00 \ud611\uc5c5\ud55c \ucd5c\uadfc preprint<\/a>\uc5d0\uc120 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ub2e4\ub978 \uae30\ud6c4\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc804\uc5fc\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uace0, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc801\ub3c4 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \ud37c\uc9c4 \uc0ac\ub840\ub85c \ubcfc \ub54c \ub2e4\uc2b5\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc804\uc5fc\ub825\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ub36e\uc5b4\ub193\uace0 \ucd94\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc694\uc18c 2: \uc778\uac04 \ud589\ub3d9<\/strong> \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0\uc5d0 \ub300\uac1c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \uc8fc\ub85c \uc2e4\ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \ud65c\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \ud658\uae30\ub97c \ub35c\ud558\uba70 \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uac70\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc881\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \ud559\uad50\ub4e4\uc774 \uc804\uc5fc\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uadfc\uac70\uc9c0\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ud638\ud761\uae30 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc758 \uc804\uc5fc\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 \ud559\uad50 \ud559\uae30\uc640 \uc5f0\uad00\ub418\uc5b4\uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\uace0\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc218\ub450<\/a>, \ud64d\uc5ed<\/a> \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub3c5\uac10(\ubcf4\uace0<\/a> \ubc0f \ubcf4\uace0<\/a>)\uc774 \uadf8 \uc608\ub4e4\uc774\ub2e4. \ud559\uae30\uac00 SARS-CoV-2\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubd88\ubd84\uba85\ud558\ub2e4. \uc544\ub3d9\ub4e4\uc774 \ud655\uc9c4\ub41c \uacbd\uc6b0\ub294 \ub4dc\ubb3c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\ub4e4\uc774 \ubcc4\ub85c \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc77c \uc218\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ub294 \uc774\ub4e4\uc774 \uc99d\uc0c1\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc11c \ubb34\uc99d\uc0c1 \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a4\ub294 \uac83\uc77c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ub294 \uadf8 \uc911\uac04\uc77c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uaddc\uba85\ud574\uc57c \ud559\uad50 \ud3d0\uc1c4\uac00 COVID-19 \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \ub9c9\uace0 \ud1b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294\ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ud310\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc694\uc18c 3: \uc219\uc8fc\uc758 \uba74\uc5ed\uacc4<\/strong>. \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uac04\uc758 \uba74\uc5ed\ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0\uc774 \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574\uc11c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac00\uc124 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \uba5c\ub77c\ud1a0\ub2cc<\/a>\uc774 \uba74\uc5ed\ub825\uacfc \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uad11\uc8fc\uae30\ub85c \uc870\uc808\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc5fc\ub825\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ub2e4\ub978 \uac00\uc124\ub85c\ub294 \ube44\ud0c0\ubbfc D \ub808\ubca8\uc774 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc790\uc678\uc0b0 \ub178\ucd9c\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 (\uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc790\uc678\uc120\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \ucb10\uace0 \ube44\ud0c0\ubbfc D \ud569\uc131\uc774 \uc62c\ub77c\uac04\ub2e4) \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0 \uba74\uc5ed\ub825\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac00\uc124\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uac15\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\ub294 \ubb34\uc791\uc704 \uc784\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uba54\ud0c0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ud0c0\ubbfc D\ub97c \ub354 \uba39\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae09\uc131 \ud638\ud761 \uac10\uc5fc\ub960\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd98\ub2e4\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud55c \ubc14<\/a>\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ub3c5\uac10\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774 \uba74\uc5ed\ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uacfc \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0 \uc0ac\ub840 \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uac83 \uac19\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubd84\uc57c\uac00 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub418\uc5b4\uc57c\ud558\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604 \uc0ac\ud0dc\uc640 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0 \ubaa8\ub974\uaca0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc694\uc18c 4: \uc804\uc5fc\ub418\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc219\uc8fc\uc218\uc758 \uac10\uc18c<\/strong>. \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc774 \uc5c6\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc740 \uc9c0\uc218\ud568\uc218\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud558\ub2e4\uac00, \uadf8 \uc804\uc5fc\uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uace0, \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294\ub370, \uac10\uc5fc\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9ce\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac10\uc5fc\uc790\uac00 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc744 \uac10\uc5fc\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uace0 (Reff>1), \uac10\uc5fc\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\ub4e4\uc758 \ube44\uc728\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74\uc11c \uc804\uc5fc\uc774 \ud53c\ud06c\ub97c \ucc0d\uace0 (Reff=1), \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac10\uc18c\ud55c\ub2e4 (Reff<1). \ub9cc\uc57d \uc704\uc758 1-3\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc694\uc18c\ub4e4\uc774 \uacc4\uc808\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \uac10\uc5fc\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud558\uba74 (\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ucd9c\uc0dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574\uc11c) \uc774 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \uacc4\uc808\uc694\uc18c\uc640 \uc5f0\uad00\ub418\uc5b4 \ub9e4\ub144 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294 \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774 \uc810\uc774 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc694\uc810\uc774\ub2e4: \uc124\uc0ac \uacc4\uc808\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc774\ub77c \ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ub9cc\uc57d \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uba74 “\uacc4\uc808\uacfc \uad00\uacc4\uc5c6\uc774” \ud655\uc0b0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/strong> \uc2e0\uc885 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub294 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uac15\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2c8\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370 – \uac70\uc758 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uac1c\uc778\ub3c4 \uc774 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc5d0 \uba74\uc5ed\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uc624\ub79c\ub3d9\uc548 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc740 \ub354 \uc801\uc740 \uc218\uc758 \uc219\uc8fc\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ud589\ud574\uc57c\ud55c\ub2e4 — \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uac1c\uc778\ub4e4\uc740 \uba74\uc5ed\uc774 \ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uace0, \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc774 \uc720\ud589\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc77c\ubd80\uc758 \uc544\uc9c1 \uba74\uc5ed\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc219\uc8fc\ub4e4\uc744 \ub178\ub824\uc57c\ud55c\ub2e4. \uac04\ub2e8\ud558\uac8c \ub9d0\ud574, \uc624\ub798\ub3d9\uc548 \uc720\ud589\ud588\ub358 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc798 \uc804\uc5fc\ub418\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294, \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ub9de\uc544\uc57c\ud558\uace0, \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc880\ub354 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ub9de\ub294 \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0\uc5d0 \uc720\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e0\uc885 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4 — pandemic \uc778\ud50c\ub8e8\uc5d4\uc790 \uac19\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0 — \uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \ub3c5\uac10 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uc720\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc808\uacfc \ub2e4\ub978 \ucca0\uc5d0 \uc720\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 2009\ub144, \uc2e0\uc885 \uc778\ud50c\ub8e8\uc5d4\uc790 \ud310\ub370\ubbf9\uc740 4\uc6d4\uc5d0\uc11c 5\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub410\uace0 (\ub3c5\uac10 \uc2dc\uc98c\uc774\ub791 \uc804\ud600 \ub2e4\ub984), \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uc5d0 \uc18c\uac15\uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub2e4\uac00 (\uc544\ub9c8\ub3c4 \uc774 \ub3c5\uac10\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc720\uc544\ub4e4\uc774 \uc804\uc5fc\uc5d0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc694\uc18c\uc774\uace0 \ud559\uad50 \ubc29\ud559\ucca0\uc774\uc5c8\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0<\/a>), \ud1b5\uc0c1 \ub3c5\uac10 \uc2dc\uc98c \uc2dc\uc791\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub978 9-10\uc6d4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc720\ud589\ud588\ub2e4. \uc989 \uc624\ub798\ub41c \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc2e0\uc885 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub294 \uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \uacc4\uc808\uc131 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4<\/a>. \uc774\ub294 \ub3c5\uac10 \ud310\ub370\ubbf9 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ud754\ud788 \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud328\ud134<\/a>\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc790, \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc694\uc57d\ud558\uc790\uba74: \uc2e0\uc885 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4 SARS-CoV-2\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c, \ub2e4\ub978 \ubca0\ud0c0 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub4e4\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc591\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0\uc5d0 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc804\uc5fc\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \uadf8 \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294\uc9c0\ub294 \ubaa8\ub978\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacc4\uc808\uc801\uc778 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc544\uc8fc \ud074 \uac83 \uac19\uc9c4 \uc54a\uace0, \uadf8 \uc790\uccb4\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud310\ub370\ubbf9 \ub3c5\uac10\uc758 \uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ucd94\ub860\ud558\uc790\uba74, SARS-CoV-2\ub294 \uc778\uac04\uc5d0\uac8c \uc2e0\uc885\uc774\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uba74\uc5ed\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \uac1c\uc778\ub4e4\uc774 \uc801\uc744 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\uc11c\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc804\uc5fc\ub420 \uacc4\uc18d \uc804\uc5fc\uc131\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ub0a0\uc528\uac00 \ub530\ub73b\ud574\uc9c0\ub294\uac8c \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uc218\ub294 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc804\uc5fc\uc744 \uc885\uc2dd\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c4 \ubabb\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\uae09\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uacfc\uc81c\ub294 \uc544\uc774\ub4e4\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc804\ud30c\uc790\ub4e4\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub0d0\ub294 \ubb38\uc81c\uc774\uace0, \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac1c\ud559 \uc5f0\uae30 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \uacf5\uc5f0\ud55c \uc790\uc6d0\ub0ad\ube44\uac00 \ub420\uc9c0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294\ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc800\uc790\uc815\ubcf4: https:\/\/www.hsph.harvard.edu\/marc-lipsitch\/ Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health \ud558\ubc84\ub4dc \ubcf4\uac74\ub300\ud559\uc6d0 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\ud559 \uad50\uc218 \ucd08\ubc8c\ubc88\uc5ed \uc6d0\ubb38: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/documen..\/edit (\uad6c\uae00\ub2e5\uc2a4\uc774\uae30\ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 2020-02-26 10:10:00 AM EDT \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uce74\ud53c\ud574\uc11c \ubc88\uc5ed\ud568) \uc544\ub798\ub294 \ucd08\ubc8c\ubc88\uc5ed\uc774\uace0 \uc6d0\ubb38\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud558\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub780\ub2e4.   … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-scrap"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4eocT-6X","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=431"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":445,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions\/445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nobodylab.net\/blog\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}